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foreign video about chain link so chain link has dropped quite considerably yesterday we did drop all the way to around five dollars and 77 so if if this was a small Wave 2 here then it was very shallow looking at what we are doing here now Id rather think that weve got a three and four here so Id rather align the wave count a little bit with what um what Bitcoin is doing so that we had a small one two up here and that this is actually the three and the four oops off this um wave three to the downside so we might get quite a long way five or it might generally be a little bit of a shorter way three but for this wave three there what you can see down here which is part of this overall downtrend yeah where we expecting still lower lows and have been for for many months and I mean we might be getting there finally just a game of patience here thats 1.618 extension should take us to around 493. thats normally what you would expect for a wave 3. 4 or 490 lets call it 490 here that would be ideal I mean considering the length of the wave one well we need to be careful is that Wave 3 doesnt get the shortest wave because that is not allowed um but bear in mind youve got the wave one then weve got a wave three here while saying that if we reach the 1.618 extension its not going to be the the shortest wave anyway um no this should be fine um but yeah for me this is this is a third wave here and it looks like we might have just finished here the third wave of a third wave what were doing here over the weekend looks to me like a fourth wave a very shallow retracement what you have often get um its its typically what you get after a long move down I already suggested on it was Friday I think that it might be a quiet weekend um okay Saturday we moved a bit but was still overall a quiet weekend because after such a strong move down here that we saw on Thursday and Friday um the Saturday and today is mainly just sort of recovering or not really recovering but consolidating this would rather suggest a further move to the downside in line with my white elite wave count here which would suggest a further sell-off I mean if we zoom in here this is the one hour chart already this is just sort of what you would call after a strong downtrend maybe even a maybe even a bare flag of some sort yeah some kind of a channel or even triangle and again theres different ways of drawing this or bearish pennant maybe um Im Im fully expecting a further sell-off here I mean short-term upside is always possible as long as it does not exceed probably at the spike of the two here as long as it does not exceed the 6.37 level this wave count is fully intact its only if we break through resistance and the first main resistance that you normally get is a 50 retracement because of the that would be sort of the maximum length of the Wave 4 here that you would expect if its above that it would normally not be away four anymore so its the first major resistance if we get above that probably something more bullish is going on because the yellow count which is the bullish count still has a chance but I dont I dont expect it to work out yeah I mean I could always be wrong this is not you know dont dont be fooled into a false sense of certainty that these especially shortwave short-term wave counts provide um they do provide you with um yeah a certain sense of of prediction but most like mostly with um where your key areas of support are low risk High reward trades and so on and the probability is certainly for certain moves I mean here if this is still moving out as a Wave 3 to the upside so we had a bullish count in previous videos a wave one to the upside a wave two to the downside that should be nearly if this is going to work out it really needs to move up now it really needs to move up now theres currently nothing it looks like that its going to do that so the target for the third wave to the upside would be 942 and if we break above this um 7.80 level here from the 1st of December that is when I would start to believe that something more bullish is possibly going on but in the end we also need to break above 963 theres another next relevant resistance level but um yeah I mean the probability for the yellow count the bullish count has reduced even further as I said already in my last videos it was never primary expectation even up here where it really had a chance to move up in the end it was only in three waves um where it really had a chance to move up I only gave it like 35 probability which is not very high um and if we now look at what what did we do we did get down to the 88.7 flip level thats thats really less than ideal for a possible wave two so if we really have a so-called long trade set up here in a one two setup yeah you could argue its really low risk in terms of what you would risk because you can set the stop loss straight below the 88.7 FIB level if you want to trade this but its certainly very very low probability in in working out I wouldnt trade this because the fact that it dropped below the six dollar level here the 78.6 percent flip level and were still below that even if we recover now we just drop too low it would indicate to me that this possible bullish pattern is most likely not going to work out and even if you want to construct into this some kind of an ABC pattern the wave C would rather be too short anyway and if the wave C becomes longer we are going to invalidate this one two pattern anyway which would eventually lead to new lows so for me Im fully expecting a move to the downside of course theres always a chance for a for something more bullish here I dont see it as I said I gave you the key resistance area thats relevant here anyway and I would expect to further move down uh probably into the region of around you know lets look at that um I think I gave you a target for this third wave down here anyway before we can just double did I just do that actually I think I did yeah its around five dollar isnt it so we talked about that um so yeah you know we could easily drop in in one more dip quite strongly especially because this is quite a relevant area of support below which we are now I mean we dropped below FIP support so the bullish scenario is getting less likely but still this is still an area of structural support and Im gonna highlight that maybe in a different color here its a structural area of support dropping below that I mean this could this could become a huge head and shoulders right I mean I gave you the I gave you some targets here to the upside but the thing is theres always other possible short-term patterns that could become possible here the thing is be aware of the key support areas we drop too far to make a bullish outcome likely so Im gonna treat every move to the upside as corrective as going against um the higher level Trend and the trend for me is still down so if we put in um something like this even if its only a shallow right shoulder youve got your head and shoulders and I believe it would be pretty much in line with my overall Target here for for chain link yeah neckline here down to 550 if we break below that it will take us into that three dollar region so um it will be interesting it will be interesting lets see if this is going to work out um and thats everything I can tell you at the moment about about a chain link theres nothing bullish at the moment here especially the latest drop made a bullish outcome uh even less likely I did introduce here bullish count recently with a low probability because we had five waves up so I cannot completely leave it off the chart as you know there was never 100 certainty in these markets theres only my responsibility to show you different outcomes here and the possibilities even if its less likely so you can prepare but for me I fully expect a break of this support level sooner or later okay thats my update about chain link I hope you like the update if you did please hit the like button 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